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This paper brings together divergent approaches to time inconsistency from macroeconomic policy and behavioural economics. Developing Barro and Gordon’s models of rules, discretion and reputation, behavioural discount functions from behavioural microeconomics are embedded into Barro and Gordon’s game-theoretic analysis of temptation versus enforcement to construct an encompassing model, nesting combinations of time consistent and time inconsistent preferences. The analysis presented in this paper shows that, with hyperbolic/quasi-hyperbolic discounting, the enforceable range of inflation targets is narrowed. This suggests limits to the effectiveness of monetary targets, under certain conditions. The paper concludes with a discussion of monetary policy implications, explored specifically in the light of current macroeconomic policy debates.
From:
Michelle Baddeley
This paper brings together divergent approaches to time inconsistency from macroeconomic policy and behavioural economics. Developing Barro and Gordon’s models of rules, discretion and reputation, behavioural discount functions from behavioural microeconomics are embedded into Barro and Gordon’s game-theoretic analysis of temptation versus enforcement to construct an encompassing model, nesting combinations of time consistent and time inconsistent preferences. The analysis presented in this paper shows that, with hyperbolic/quasi-hyperbolic discounting, the enforceable range of inflation targets is narrowed. This suggests limits to the effectiveness of monetary targets, under certain conditions. The paper concludes with a discussion of monetary policy implications, explored specifically in the light of current macroeconomic policy debates.
From:
Michelle Baddeley