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From:


Replication crisis and debates about p-values have raised doubts about what we can statistically infer from research findings, both in experimental and observational studies. The goal of this paper is to provide an adequate differentiation of experimental studies that enables researchers to better understand which inferences can and – perhaps more important – cannot be made from particular designs.


Hirschauer, Norbert
Gruener, Sven;
Mußhoff, Oliver
Becker, Claudia

Replication crisis and debates about p-values have raised doubts about what we can statistically infer from research findings, both in experimental and observational studies. The goal of this paper is to provide an adequate differentiation of experimental studies that enables researchers to better understand which inferences can and – perhaps more important – cannot be made from particular designs.

Here. (PDF)

We study the role of experience in the formation of asset price bubbles. Therefore, we conduct two related experiments. One is a call market experiment in which participants trade assets with each other. The other is a learning-to-forecast experiment in which participants only forecast future prices, while the trade, which is based on these forecasts, is computerized. Each experiment comprises three treatments that vary the amount of information about the fundamental value that participants receive. Each market is repeated three times. In both experiments and in all treatments, we observe sizable bubbles. These bubbles do not disappear with experience. Our findings in the call market experiment stand in contrast to the literature. Our findings in the learning- to-forecast experiment are novel. Interestingly, the shape of the bubbles is different between the two experiments. We observe flat bubbles in the call market experiment and boom-and-bust cycles in the learning-to-forecast experiment.

From:

Anita Kopányi-Peukery
​Matthias Weberz
Kopanyi-Peuker, Anita; Weber, MatthiasKopanyi-Peuker, Anita; Weber, MatthiasKopanyi-Peuker, Anita; Weber, Matthias

Here.

We have been using and promoting experiments in teaching economics for more than ten years, with very positive feedback from both students and instructors. In econclassexperiments.com, we are posting freely available the material and software to run experiments in the classroom with the use of smartphones or other mobile devices.
 
The experiments were first published by Ted Bergstrom and John H. Miller in their book “Experiments with Economic Principles”.  Chapters from the book are now updated and presented in a free web-book . The experiments have been adapted to be run with mobile devices in the classroom; they run very fast and are very easy to conduct, even if you have no prior experience. The software and the material also save the instructor a lot preparation and tedious book-keeping work.  

Please, visit https://econclassexperiments.com/ for a description of the program and how it works.

For each experiment, we provide 
(1) an instructor’s manual with instructions to run the experiment and hints to conduct the discussion; 
(2) instructions for students and exercises for them to reflect on the experiment; 
(3) an online warm-up quiz; and 
(4) Excel files that generate solutions to the exercises and collect participation, performance in the experiment and the warm-up quiz,..., all automatically from the data file provided by classEx (the free software we use). 

If you are involved in teaching economics courses these days, we hope you will consider trying it out.  Each experiment is self-contained and everything is free, so it is easy to give it a trial run.

Sincerely,
 
Ted Bergstrom (University of California-Santa Barbara)
Marcus Giamattei (Bard College Berlin and University of Passau)
Humberto Llavador (Pompeu Fabra University and Barcelona GSE)
John H. Miller (Carnegie Melon University)

P.S. Why do we do this? We have found that conducting economic experiments in the classroom, with discussions before, during, and after the experiments, is an effective way of getting students to use economics to think about the world around them. Students have no problem grasping the rules for the experiments and love getting involved with markets and then figuring out what happened rather than simply being lectured at. Better yet, they not always play as cleverly as they might, providing the opportunity to learn from their own and others’ mistakes. They are enthusiastic about what they learn. As instructors, we feel the same way.

P.P.S. We are committed to keep access to the all the material for free under a creative commons by-nc-nd icense.

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​When the information of many individuals is pooled, the resulting aggregate often is a good predictor of unknown quantities or facts (“wisdom of crowds”). This aggregate predictor frequently outperforms the forecasts of experts or even the best individual forecast included in the aggregation process. However, an appropriate aggregation mechanism is considered crucial to reaping the benefits of a “wise crowd”. Of the many possible ways to aggregate individual forecasts, we compare (uncensored and censored) mean and median, continuous double auction market prices and sealed bid-offer call market prices in a controlled experiment. We use an asymmetric information structure where subjects know different subsets of the total information needed to exactly calculate the asset value to be estimated. We find that prices from continuous double auction markets clearly outperform all alternative approaches for aggregating dispersed information and that information is only useful to the best-informed subjects. 

From:

Stefan Palan
Jürgen Huber
Larissa Senninger

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​The International Research Conference Aims and ObjectivesThe International Research Conference is a federated organization dedicated to bringing together a significant number of diverse scholarly events for presentation within the conference program. Events will run over a span of time during the conference depending on the number and length of the presentations. With its high quality, it provides an exceptional value for students, academics and industry researchers.
ICEFT 2020: 14. International Conference on Experimental Finance and Theories aims to bring together leading academic scientists, researchers and research scholars to exchange and share their experiences and research results on all aspects of Experimental Finance and Theories. It also provides a premier interdisciplinary platform for researchers, practitioners and educators to present and discuss the most recent innovations, trends, and concerns as well as practical challenges encountered and solutions adopted in the fields of Experimental Finance and Theories
Call for ContributionsProspective authors are kindly encouraged to contribute to and help shape the conference through submissions of their research abstracts, papers and e-posters. Also, high quality research contributions describing original and unpublished results of conceptual, constructive, empirical, experimental, or theoretical work in all areas of Experimental Finance and Theories are cordially invited for presentation at the conference. The conference solicits contributions of abstracts, papers and e-posters that address themes and topics of the conference, including figures, tables and references of novel research materials.
Guidelines for AuthorsPlease ensure your submission meets the conference's strict guidelines for accepting scholarly papers. Downloadable versions of the check list for Full-Text Papers and Abstract Papers.
Please refer to the Paper Submission Guideline, Abstract Submission Guideline and Author Information before submitting your paper.
Conference ProceedingsAll submitted conference papers will be blind peer reviewed by three competent reviewers. The peer-reviewed conference proceedings are indexed in the Open Science Index, Google Scholar, Semantic Scholar, Zenedo, OpenAIRE, BASE, WorldCAT, Sherpa/RoMEO, and other index databases. Impact Factor Indicators.
Special Journal IssuesICEFT 2020 has teamed up with the Special Journal Issue on Experimental Finance and Theories. A number of selected high-impact full text papers will also be considered for the special journal issues. All submitted papers will have the opportunity to be considered for this Special Journal Issue. The paper selection will be carried out during the peer review process as well as at the conference presentation stage. Submitted papers must not be under consideration by any other journal or publication. The final decision for paper selection will be made based on peer review reports by the Guest Editors and the Editor-in-Chief jointly. Selected full-text papers will be published online free of charge.
Conference Sponsor and Exhibitor OpportunitiesThe Conference offers the opportunity to become a conference sponsor or exhibitor. To participate as a sponsor or exhibitor, please download and complete the Conference Sponsorship Request Form.

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We propose a method to quantify narratives from textual data in a structured manner, and identify what we label “narrative monetary policy surprises” as the change in economic media coverage explained by central bank communication accompanying interest rate meetings. Our proposed method is fast and simple, and relies on a Singular Value Decomposition of the different texts and articles coupled with a unit rotation identification scheme. Identifying narrative surprises in central bank communication using this type of data and identification provides surprise measures that are uncorrelated with conventional monetary policy surprises, and, in contrast to such surprises, have a significant effect on subsequent media coverage. In turn, narrative monetary policy surprises lead to macroeconomic responses similar to what recent monetary policy literature associates with the information component of monetary policy communication. Our study highlights the importance of written central bank communication and the role of the media as information intermediaries.

From:

Saskia ter Ellen, Vegard H. Larsen and Leif Anders Thorsrud

Here.

​In this paper, we investigate a search model with divisible fiat money in a laboratory setting where transaction prices are endogenously determined. In the model, there exist welfare-ranked multiple stationary monetary equilibria and gift-giving equilibria. We find that endogenizing transaction prices enhanced the coordination of subjects through monetary exchange and deteriorated it through gift-giving. In other words, the subjects endogenously reduced the trade friction of monetary exchanges. We also compare our experimental results with those in search models with exogenously given transaction prices.


From:


Kazuya Kamiya
Hajime Kobayashi
Tatsuhiro Shichijo
Takashi Shimizu

Here.

We examine the competition among and the opacity of banks subject to rollover
risk. Banks imperfectly compete for uninsured deposits and choose the opacity
of their risky investment. In a static setup, higher bank competition increases
the deposit rate, which increases withdrawal incentives due to strategic complementarity
and thus raises bank fragility. In a dynamic setup with entry, a
theory of bank opacity arises. Opacity trades off a static cost of larger withdrawals
and costly liquidation of investment with a dynamic benefit of deterring
entry and reducing future competition. We use our framework to evaluate the
regulation of competition or transparency. We find that greater competition increases
deposit rates, fragility, and transparency, while minimum transparency
regulation increases both current and future fragility and future competition.

From:

Toni Ahnert David Martinez-Miera
Bank of Canada, CEPR Carlos III, CEPR

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Objective of this lecture

To present a model in which agents have cognitive limitations and do not understand the whole picture (the underlying model). Instead they only understand small bits and pieces of the whole model o and use simple rules to guide their behavior. Rationality will be introduced through a selection mechanism in which agents evaluate the performance of the rule they are following and decide to switch or to stick to the rule depending on how well the rule performs relative to other rules.

From:
Paul De Grauwe
Yuemei Ji

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September 27, 2019, 9:00 AM to September 28, 2019, 4:30 PM
Van Metre Hall (formerly Founders Hall), Room #126
The Interdisciplinary Center for Economic Science (ICES) at George Mason University will host the second annual conference on Theory and Experiments in Monetary Economics (TEME).
Organized by Daniel Houser and Daniela Puzzello, the TEME conference is sponsored in part by Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization (JEBO), which will also publish a special issue focused on “Theoretical and Experimental Monetary Economics.” In order to encourage the exchange of ideas among participants, the conference will include three keynote addresses and a dozen plenary sessions spread over two days. The purpose of the conference and special issue is to provide a forum to discuss frontier research related to the use of experimental methods in exploring and developing monetary theory and macroeconomic monetary policy.

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Uncertainty is an amorphous concept. It reflects uncertainty in the minds of consumers, managers, and policymakers about possible futures. It is also a broad concept, including uncertainty over the path of macro phenomena like GDP growth, micro phenomena like the growth rate of firms, and non economic events like war and climate change. In this essay, I address four questions about uncertainty. First, what are some facts and patterns about economic uncertainty? Both macro and micro uncertainty appear to rise sharply in recessions and fall in booms. Uncertainty also varies heavily across countries—developing countries appear to have about one-third more macro uncertainty than developed countries. Second, why does uncertainty vary during business cycles? Third, do fluctuations in uncertainty affect behavior? Fourth, has higher uncertainty worsened the Great Recession and slowed the recovery? Much of this discussion is based on research on uncertainty from the last five years, reflecting the recent growth of the literature.

From:

Nicholas Bloom