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Only Paul Could Go To Changchun

Neoclassical Supply and Demand, Experiments, and the Classical Theory of Price Formation

12/11/2022

 
Inoua, S. & Smith, V.L. (2020).

Classical versus neoclassical equilibrium discovery processes in market supply and demand theory. 

ESI Working Paper 20-19. https://digitalcommons.chapman.edu/esi_working_papers/314/


We identify a consistent thread of development in classical economic thought that is directed toward a supply and demand theory of market price formation or discovery. The theory is articulated by Adam Smith and further developed and refined by his French, English, and Italian followers. The foundation is in classical descriptions of demand, expressed in markets as maximum willingness to pay reservation values, for given discrete quantities of goods desired for consumption by buyers. Sellers, likewise, harbor minimum willingness to accept reservation values for these quantities based on their unit costs.  Although goods clearly have hidden utility value, individual reservation values and costs were respected classical measures grounded in observation, with buyers trying to buy cheaper than their maximum willingness to pay, and sellers trying to sell dearer than their minimum willingness to accept. Mathematically, demand is a distribution function of individual values reordered from highest to lowest that Cournot acknowledged. Supply is a distribution function of individual unit costs. Consequently, buyers and sellers arrive in the market with aggregate distributions of values, v = d (Q) and costs, c = s (Q). However, price, p, in this narrative is yet to emerge.  Based on these reservation value data, Adam Smith’s description of price formation in market “higgling” involves two coordinate features: (1) a dynamic price-change version of the “law of supply and demand,” and (2) the concept that we call “short side rationing.” At a quoted offer too low, purchases cannot exceed the supply offered, and buyer competition for the marginal unit offered raises the price. At a quoted price too high, sales cannot exceed the amount demanded and sellers cut the marginal unit’s price. Hence, the dynamic implication is that price increases (decreases) if there is excess demand (supply). The 49 integral of this signed derivative, constrained by short side rationing, defines the short side rationed surplus profit of the traders, which is what directly motivates realized market gains from trade. Neither the so-called Walrasian excess demand, nor Marshall’s excess of demand price over supply price, are fundamental drivers of price adjustment but are merely correlates of the more fundamental classical adjustment process. Convergence can be toward states that include short side rationing as in a constant (unit cost) industry or in an English auction of a unique item.  Contrastingly, in the neoclassical marginal revolution, demand is derived from individual utility functions defined over a continuous commodity space, subject to given prices and income. Demand is conceptualized as a price-conditional, pre-market maximization task, intended to be part of the equation structure of general equilibrium.  Similarly, for individual producer-sellers, supply is a pre-market price conditional cost minimizing exercise. This equation structure end-objective, however, fatally undermines the task of articulating a theory of price formation emanating from interacting buyers and sellers. Price is “given” rather than a variable to be determined. Hence, knowledge of price seemed either to require complete information or an “as if” adjustment process whereby prices were determined by the law of one price in a market.  This impasse ended with the Sonenshein-Mantel-Debreu theorems proving that general equilibrium was silent in yielding results and in failing even to imply the law of demand.  We claim that this vacuous result is a consequence of the axiom of price-taking behavior and the law of one price in a market, thus justifying a reexamination of the more 50 observationally grounded, consistent, and rigorous classical conceptions of individual behavior in markets. ​
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The Role of the End Time in Experimental Asset Markets

5/16/2022

 
papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=4089628

By now there are hundreds of scientific articles on experimental asset markets. Almost all of these experiments use a short and definite horizon. This may be one of the starkest differences to financial asset markets outside the laboratory, which usually have indefinite and comparatively long horizons. We analyze the role of the end time in an asset market experiment in which we vary the length of the horizon and whether the end time is definite or indefinite. We find recurring bubbles and similar price dynamics in all treatments (with moderately lower prices in the treatments with a long horizon).

Anita Kopanyi-Peuker
Matthias Weber















Are classroom games useful for teaching 'sticky' finance concepts? Evidence from a swap game (Working paper)

12/1/2021

 
Here.

Despite long list of documented games in economics and other disciplines, a lack of literature on experiments in finance teaching suggests that academics in the field of finance may have been slower to embrace the benefits of experimental learning than academics in other fields. This paper contributes in closing the gap. Firstly, it documents an example of a role-play game, which might be used in teaching a ‘sticky’ concept of swaps. Secondly, the paper discusses students’ experiences of the game and provides a summary of the survey results. Finally, the paper contributes to the thin literature of experimental learning effectiveness by presenting evidence on how the participation in the experiment contributed to the assessment result in the relevant examination question. 


From: Alexandr Akimov
Mirela Malin

What to Target? Insights from a Lab Experiment

11/8/2021

 
Here.

This paper compares alternative monetary policy regimes within a controlled lab environment, where groups of participants are tasked with repeatedly forecasting inflation in a simple macroeconomic model featuring only the dynamics of interest rates, inflation and inflation expectations. Average-inflation targeting can approximate the price path observed under price-level targeting in the presence of disinflationary shocks and enable subjects to coordinate on simple heuristics that reflect the concern of the central bank for past inflation gaps. However, this depends on the exact specification of the policy rule. In particular, if the central bank considers more than two lags, subjects fail to form expectations that are consistent with the monetary policy rule, which results in greater inflation volatility. Reinforcing communication around the target helps somewhat anchor longrun inflation expectations. Topics: Monetary policy framework; Inflation targets; Monetary policy communications JEL codes: E31; E52; E7; C92

From:

Isabelle L. Salle
​

November 1st, 2021

11/1/2021

 
Here.

Experimental finance has made great strides in understanding how market participants price assets in a variety of different settings (see Sunder, 1995; Palan, 2013; Powell and Shestakova, 2016 and Nuzzo and Morone, 2017 for early, as well as more recent surveys). The experimental approach allowed researchers to reduce confounding factors that are present in complex financial markets by controlling environmental factors such as the information available to traders (Bloomfield and Anderson, 2010), or the fundamental value of assets traded, to cleanly isolate the variables of interest.

.....

In this chapter, we review the small but growing experimental literature on trade in multiple assets as well as trade in more complex financial instruments, such as derivatives and indices, the value of which is derived from underlying assets. Experiments that include multiple assets, where at least two or more assets are sufficiently similar, allow us to study whether the no arbitrage condition holds. This condition is an important assumption for formulating predictions under concepts such as interest rate parity, and the law of one price, or for trade with more complex financial instruments such as exchange-traded funds (ETFs). Furthermore, environments with multiple assets expand the range of topics that can be studied, including asset risk premia, price co-movement between assets, and the impact of derivatives and/or indices on the prices of underlying assets

From:

John Duffy
Jean Paul Rabanal
Olga A. Rud




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For the Student:  Experimental Economics

10/19/2021

 
Here.

Experimental economics is a branch of economics that uses controlled experiments to explore the predictive power of theories, evaluate behavioural assumptions, investigate behavioural regularities and test the implementation of policies. It is one of the fastest growing areas of economics (Oswald 2010).The development of an experimental methodology in economics is recent relative to other disciplines such as physics and psychology.

Although informal experiments were 
conducted as early as in the eighteenth century(see Bernoulli 1738), the results from the first formal economic experiment appeared in an article by Edward Chamberlin in 1948. After half a century of continuous growth in the number of economic experiments, in 2002, Vernon Smith, a participant in Chamberlin’s experiment, was awarded the Nobel Prize ‘for establishing laboratory experiments as a tool for empirical economics analysis’ (Nobel Announcement 2002).This article is an introduction to experimental economics aimed primarily at students and scholars with little or no prior knowledge on the topic. The next section discusses why con-trolled experiments are a valuable tool in economics and proceeds to present lab and field experiments, provide examples of experiments, and address some of the common criticisms regarding laboratory experiments.


From:

​Nikos Nikiforakis
​

Game-based learning: Teaching principles of economics and investment finance through Monopoly

10/18/2021

 
Here.


This paper investigates the application of a modified version of the board game of Monopoly to explore the content learned and optimization of a game-based learning process. The authors made used of a qualitative cross-sectional research design through content analysis of learning documents for 77 participants and analyzed basic behavioral trends over a 10-year period. The results show the breadth of learning through the game of Monopoly that was modified by incorporating disruptive elements. Themes include learning about the investment environment, financial management, alliances and relationships, investment strategies, investment tactics, human behavior in investment finance in addition to personal insights gained. Basic trend analysis revealed consistent overconfidence in investment strategies as well as cheating behavior. The paper demonstrates the importance of debriefing activities in the game processes, and it also offers instructional designers a framework that can be used for design considerations of game based learning interventions. 




From:

Charlene Lew
Adrian Saville 



A time-varying network for cryptocurrencies

9/20/2021

 
Here.

Cryptocurrencies return cross-predictability and technological similarity yield information
on risk propagation and market segmentation. To investigate these effects, we build a time-
varying network for cryptocurrencies, based on the evolution of return cross-predictability and
technological similarities. We develop a dynamic covariate-assisted spectral clustering method
to consistently estimate the latent community structure of cryptocurrencies network that
accounts for both sets of information. We demonstrate that investors can achieve better risk
diversification by investing in cryptocurrencies from different communities. A cross-sectional
portfolio that implements an inter-crypto momentum trading strategy earns a 1.08% daily
return. By dissecting the portfolio returns on behavioral factors, we confirm that our results
are not driven by behavioral mechanisms.


From:

Li Guo

Wolfgang Karl H ̈ardle
Yubo Tao
.







Third Behavioral Macroeconomics Workshop on July 7-8, 2021 University of Bamberg

7/1/2021

 
After the cancellation of the 2020 workshop due to the COVID-19 pandemic we are pleased to host the Third Behavioral Macroeconomics Workshop on July 7-8, 2021. The workshop take place in virtual form due to the ongoing travel restrictions.The workshop is open to the public and takes place via Zoom. To participate in the workshop, please register under the following links

Day 1 (July 7, 2021): https://uni-bamberg.zoom.us/meeting/register/tJ0kd-GvqzkvGtEM9RxAw4Lq_eDfFsG9XwLR

Day 2 (July 8, 2021): https://uni-bamberg.zoom.us/meeting/register/tJ0oce-hpj4jGd30lPURJ26Gfq1aXA3hAGq_
Program (all times are in CEST time)Day 1: Wednesday, July 7, 2021¯¯¯¯¯¯¯¯¯¯¯¯¯¯¯¯¯¯¯¯¯¯¯¯¯¯¯¯¯¯¯¯¯¯¯¯¯¯¯¯¯¯¯¯¯¯¯¯¯¯¯¯¯¯¯¯¯¯¯¯¯¯¯¯¯¯¯¯¯¯¯¯¯¯¯¯¯¯¯¯¯¯¯13: 55               Opening Remarks
Session A - Expectations and Survey Data (Chair: Joep Lustenhouwer, Heidelberg University)14:00 – 14:40  Selection in Information Acquisition and Monetary Non-Neutrality
                         Hassan Afrouzi (Columbia University), Discussant: Zeno Enders (Heidelberg University)
14:40 – 15:20 Average Inflation Targeting and Household Expectations
                         Raphael Schoenle (Brandeis University), Discussant: Kostas Mavromatis (De Nederlandsche Bank)
15:20 – 16:00 Uncertainty, Expectation Dispersion, and the Reaction to News
                         Jonas Dovern (University of Erlangen-Nürnberg). Discussant: Wei Qian (Shanghai University of Finance and Economics)
Session B – Experiments (Chair: Tomasz Makarewicz, Bielefeld University)16:30 – 17:10  An Experimental Horse Race of Different Monetary Policy Regimes
                         Luba Petersen (Simon Fraser University), Discussant: Isabelle Salle (Bank of Canada)
17:10 – 17:50  The Role of the End Time in Experimental Asset Markets 
                         Anita Kopanyi-Peuker (Radboud University). Discussant: Tomasz Makarewicz (Bielefeld University)
17:50 – 18:30  Intertemporal Prospect Theory
                         Matthias Weber (University of St. Gallen), Discussant: Özgür Gürerk (University of Erfurt)
Session C – Rational Inattention (Chair: Sven Schreiber, FU Berlin and IMK Düsseldorf)19:00 – 19:40  The Rational Inattention Framework: Recent Developments
                         Mirko Wiederholt (Sciences Po, Paris). Discussant: Michael Krause, Uni Köln
19:40 – 20:20  The Inattentive Consumer: Sentiment and Expectations
                         Rupal Kamdar (Indiana University, Bloomington), Discussant: Thomas Theobald, IMK
20:20 – 21:00  A Rational Theory of Limited Attention
                         Alexandre Kohlhas (IIES, Stockholm). Discussant: Jonas Löbbing, LMU München
Day 2: Thursday July 8, 2021¯¯¯¯¯¯¯¯¯¯¯¯¯¯¯¯¯¯¯¯¯¯¯¯¯¯¯¯¯¯¯¯¯¯¯¯¯¯¯¯¯¯¯¯¯¯¯¯¯¯¯¯¯¯¯¯¯¯¯¯¯¯¯¯¯¯¯¯¯¯¯¯¯¯¯¯¯¯¯¯¯¯¯Session D - Expectations in Macroeconomic Models (Chair: Emanuel Gasteiger, TU Wien)14:00 – 14:40  Boundedly Rational Decision Making in Continuous-Time
                         Chandler Lester (University of Oregon). Discussant: Mike Shin (University of Sydney)
14:40 – 15:20  Heterogeneous Expectations and the Effective Lower Bound
                         Tolga Özden (U Amsterdam), Discussant: Jacek Suda (NBP and Warsaw School of Economics)
15:20 – 16:00  Stagnation and Fiscal Policy: A Nonlinear Analysis
                         Seppo Honkapohja (Aalto University), Discussant: Alex Grimaud (TU Wien)
Session E – COVID-19 and Economic Behavior (Chair: Christian Proaño, University of Bamberg)16:30 – 17:10  The Effects of Fiscal Policy on Households during the COVID-19 Pandemic: Evidence from Emerging Economies
                         Lena Dräger (University of Hannover), Discussant: Sebastian Gechert (IMK Düsseldorf)
17:10 – 17:50  How to Design Virus Containment Polices? A Joint Analysis of Economic and Epidemic Dynamics Under the COVID-19 Pandemic
                         Herbert Dawid (Bielefeld University), Discussant: Paola D’Orazio (University of Bochum)
17:50 – 18:30  Virus Dynamics with Behavioral Responses
                         Krishna Dasaratha (Yale University). Discussant: Florian Herold (University of Bamberg)
18:30 – 19:30  Closing Remarks and Informal Social Meeting
Time allocation: 25 minutes for paper presentations, 5 minutes for discussants, 10 minutes for general discussion.
Scientific CommitteeEmanuel Gasteiger (TU Wien), Joep Lustenhouwer (Heidelberg University), Tomasz Makarewicz (Bielefeld University), Christian R. Proaño (University of Bamberg), Sven Schreiber (FU Berlin and IMK Düsseldorf) and Frank Westerhoff (University of Bamberg)

The Friedman Rule: Experimental Evidence

6/8/2021

 
Here.


We explore the celebrated Friedman rule for optimal monetary policy in the context of a laboratory economy based on the Lagos-Wright model. The rule that Friedman proposed can be shown to be optimal in a wide variety of different monetary models, including the Lagos-Wright model. However, we are not aware of any prior empirical evidence evaluating the welfare consequences of the Friedman rule. We explore two implementations of the Friedman rule in the laboratory. The first is based on a deflationary monetary policy where the money supply contracts to offset time discounting. The second implementation pays interest on money removing the private marginal cost from holding money. We explore the welfare consequences of these two theoretically equivalent implementations of the Friedman Rule and compare results with two other policy regimes, a constant money supply regime and another regime advocated by Friedman, where the supply of money grows at a constant k-percent rate. We find that, counter to theory, the Friedman rule is not welfare improving, performing no better than a constant money regime. By one welfare measure, we find that the k-percent money growth rate regime performs best.


From:

John Duffy
​Daniela Puzzello


Game-based learning techniques to facilitate online teaching

4/11/2021

 
Here:

​hospitalityinsights.ehl.edu/game-based-learning-online-teaching

Can Game-Based Learning techniques be used to reduce the gap in class dynamics and interaction between distance-learning and regular face-to-face learning?
And are they effective in helping students acquire targeted competences?

From:

Philippe MassetDr Jean-Philippe Weisskopf

Mélanie Bonvin




Behavioral and Experimental Macroeconomics and Policy Analysis: A Complex Systems Approach

3/8/2021

 
https://www.ecb.europa.eu/pub/pdf/scpwps/ecb.wp2201.en.pdf

​This survey discusses behavioral and experimental macroeconomics emphasizing a complex systems perspective. The economy consists of boundedly rational heterogeneous agents who do not fully understand their complex environment and use simple decision heuristics. Central to our survey is the question under which conditions a complex macro-system of interacting agents may or may not coordinate on the rational equilibrium outcome. A general finding is that under positive expectations feedback (strategic complementarity) –where optimistic (pessimistic) expectations can cause a boom (bust)– coordination failures are quite common. The economy is then rather unstable and persistent aggregate fluctuations arise strongly amplified by coordination on trend-following behavior leading to (almost-)self-fulfilling equilibria. Heterogeneous expectations and heuristics switching models match this observed micro and macro behaviour surprisingly well. We also discuss policy implications of this coordination failure on the perfectly rational aggregate outcome and how policy can help to manage the self-organization process of a complex economic system

From:

Cars Hommes
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Examining the use of instructional video clips for teaching macroeconomics

2/16/2021

 
Here.

Elsevier Journal:
Computers & EducationVolume 144, January 2020, 103709

(You will have to get access to the journal.)

HighlightsThe effectiveness of using videos for teaching macroeconomics is analyzed.Short video clips have been created as complementary teaching materials.
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The inferential analysis shows a positive impact on the average test score.The use of video clips increases the probability of achieving high test scores.


AbstractInformation and communication technologies (ICTs) have been integrated in teaching activities to develop new learning environments. Within ICTs, the use of multimedia, such as instructional videos, has attracted significant academic attention. Nevertheless, the use of these technologies in teaching economics has generally lagged behind other disciplines. This paper adds empirical evidence to show the effectiveness of the use of instructional videos in the field of economics. Firstly, videos illustrating dynamic graphical representations of macroeconomic processes have been developed and used in the class of one student group at the University of Seville (Spain), as complementary teaching materials in the macroeconomics curriculum. Secondly, the effectiveness of these videos has been tested by carrying out an inferential analysis on experimental and control groups. Potentially significant variables such as gender, prior knowledge and ability levels of students have been considered in the analysis. Additionally, probit and multinomial probabilistic regressions have been estimated in order to assess the impact of these materials on the probability of achieving higher test scores. The findings confirm the superiority of using instructional video-clips to achieve higher test scores.




32nd Annual Teaching Economics Conference

2/16/2021

 
Here.

​32nd Annual Teaching Economics Conference Sponsored by Robert Morris University and W. W. Norton

Friday, February 26 2021

Virtual Format via Google Meet

The oldest teaching economics conference in the nation, the Robert Morris University Teaching Conference addresses the interests of teachers of economics at all levels. Plenary presentations in the past have included Stanley Brue, James Buchanan, David Colander, Susan Feiner, Robert Frank, Denise Hazlett, Campbell R. McConnell, Michael Salemi, Phillip Saunders, Bradley Schiller, John Siegfried, William Walstad, and Michael Watts.

Participant presentations and panels complement the plenary speakers. Proposals for presentations and panels are due January 31, 2021.  Register early for a reduced fee by February 19, 2021.
Confirmed speakers for the conference include:
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  • Chad Jones, the STANCO 25 Professor of Economics at Stanford University and author of Macroeconomics
  • G. Dirk Mateer from the University of Texas at Austin and the author of the best-selling Principles of Economics
  • Dee Mecham, the Downing Family Endowed Chair in Economics at The Bishop's School in LaJolla, California, and a member of the AP reader's leadership team

11th International Workshop on Theoretical and Experimental Macroeconomics

2/9/2021

 
Picture
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Heinemann, Frank, Prof. Dr. [email protected] via univalaska.onmicrosoft.com Tue, Feb 2, 4:14 AM (7 days ago)
to [email protected]
Dear all,   
We invite submissions for the 11th International Workshop on Theoretical and Experimental Macroeconomics to be held online, June 21-23, 2021.
 
The workshop will promote an active exchange and interaction of ideas and work on macroeconomic issues from behavioral, experimental, and/or theoretical approaches. Papers for this three-day workshop will be selected by the organizers from submissions. Keynote speakers are Jasmina Arifovic (Simon Fraser University) and Dirk Krueger (University of Pennsylvania).
 
Please find the call for papers attached and further information on our website:
https://www.upf.edu/web/beslab/conference-program-2021 .
To accommodate different time zones, we extend the workshop to three days and restrict ourselves to the time between 5 p.m. and 8 p.m. central European time (= 11 a.m. – 2 p.m. Eastern time (New York) = 8 – 11 a.m. Pacific time)
To submit a paper, please send your submission to [email protected]. File should be your Paper or extended abstract in an e-mail with the following subject: EM2021_lastname_firstname. Please also send your consent with video recording (form to be found on the website) and fill the short application form.
The deadline for submissions is February 28, 2021. Authors chosen to present papers will be notified approximately by mid-February, and the deadline for workshop registration is March 30. In addition to the workshop, the organizers invite young researchers and graduate students to the 13th BESLab Experimental Economics Summer School in Macroeconomics  in Macroeconomics also held online from June 20 – July 2, 2021. Summer school participants can also attend the workshop. 
Organizers of the workshop: 
·         Gabriele Camera (Chapman University and University of Bologna)
·         John Duffy (University of California, Irvine)
·         Frank Heinemann (Berlin University of Technology)
·         Rosemarie Nagel (ICREA-UPF and Barcelona GSE)
·         Luba Petersen (Simon Fraser University)
·         Shyam Sunder (Yale University)
To see the full list of speakers and papers from the previous editions of this workshop, please visit https://www.upf.edu/web/beslab/previous-events

​11th International Workshop on Theoretical and Experimental Macroeconomics Call for Papers The Eleventh International Workshop on Theoretical and Experimental Macroeconomics will be held online June 21-23, 2021. To accommodate different time zones, we extend the workshop to three days and restrict ourselves to the time between 5 p.m. and 8 p.m. central European time (= 8 – 11 a.m. Pacific time = 11 a.m. – 2 p.m. New York time) The keynote speakers for the 2021 workshop are Jasmina Arifovic (Simon Fraser University) and Dirk Krueger (University of Pennsylvania). The goal of this workshop is to promote an active exchange and interaction of ideas and work on macroeconomic issues using behavioral, experimental, and/or theoretical approaches, and therefore we seek a good mix of theory and experimental papers. The workshop is jointly organized by Technische Universität Berlin and by the BES Lab (Behavioral and Experimental Sciences Lab, (formerly LEEX) at Universitat Pompeu Fabra). For more information, please visit our website https://www.upf.edu/web/beslab/conference‐program‐2021 .  Researchers working on behavioral, experimental and theoretical approaches to addressing macroeconomic questions are invited to submit a paper for this three-day conference. The deadline for submissions is February 28, 2021. Submissions should include either a full paper or an extended abstract including the main results. To submit a paper, please send to [email protected] two attached files: One file should be your Paper or extended abstract. Please note that the Workshop sessions will be video recorded. Paper submissions should include a signed consent form for video recording (second attached file, form to be found on the website under applications). Please send both in an e-mail with the following subject: EM2021_lastname_firstname. Please also fill the short application form. Please note that the Workshop sessions will be video recorded. Paper submissions should include a signed consent form for video recording. Authors chosen to present papers will be notified in March, and the deadline for workshop registration is April 30. In addition to the workshop, the organizers invite young researchers and graduate students to the 13th BESLab Experimental Economics Summer School in Macroeconomics also held online from June 20 – July 2, 2021. Summer school participants can also attend the workshop. Information about previous workshops is available here. Please forward this announcement to all interested parties. Workshop Organizers  Gabriele Camera (Chapman University and University of Bologna)  John Duffy (University of California, Irvine)  Frank Heinemann (Technische Universität Berlin)  Rosemarie Nagel (ICREA, Universitat Pompeu Fabra, and Barcelona GSE )  Luba Petersen (Simon Fraser University)  Shyam Sunder (Yale University) 

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