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Only Paul Could Go To Changchun

Rational expectations in an experimental asset market with shocks to market trends

4/29/2019

 
Here.


We construct an experimental asset market in which the time trend of the fundamental value is subject to a shock. The design of the experiment allows testing of whether prices adhere to Rational Expectations levels, and whether there is over- or under-reaction to new information. We find that prices conform closely to Rational Expectations and episodes of mispricing are rare. A meta-analysis allows us to update our beliefs about whether experimental asset markets exhibit a generic tendency to misprice, particularly in bearish environments.

From:

Philipp Marquardt
European Central bank

Charles N Noussair
University of Arizona

Martin Weber
University of Mannheim


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